Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.346484 2.729404 3.153419 3.657548 4.240435 4.893083 5.679235
2026-01-25 1.699879 2.198952 2.810573 3.614375 4.642293 5.912300 7.600576
2026-02-01 1.235663 1.744998 2.423550 3.391777 4.736325 6.536213 9.128372
2026-02-08 0.959531 1.459441 2.174072 3.266936 4.893263 7.221398 10.806146
2026-02-15 0.789774 1.281365 2.028449 3.241645 5.158246 8.065164 12.806010
2026-02-22 0.694615 1.193423 1.993687 3.364102 5.646264 9.288181 15.535428
2026-03-01 0.590581 1.069557 1.877195 3.329194 5.866634 10.108211 17.726760
2026-03-08 0.503294 0.957148 1.758529 3.265644 6.019311 10.823428 19.825796
2026-03-15 0.441692 0.879120 1.685323 3.266256 6.276482 11.740105 22.387030
2026-03-22 0.422457 0.876756 1.747642 3.522150 7.030960 13.633837 26.968670
2026-03-29 0.383812 0.829416 1.716684 3.592628 7.439281 14.933638 30.596753
2026-04-05 0.347148 0.779798 1.673127 3.629764 7.783387 16.147880 34.209262
2026-04-12 0.309922 0.724836 1.614530 3.636059 8.084631 17.355390 38.061294
2026-04-19 0.275140 0.669720 1.548030 3.617395 8.335750 18.506286 41.989398
2026-04-26 0.231010 0.585196 1.403532 3.402539 8.124258 18.649039 43.764816
2026-05-03 0.199730 0.525699 1.306225 3.279959 8.101936 19.199559 46.528045
2026-05-10 0.178705 0.487868 1.253795 3.255479 8.305205 20.285503 50.680967
2026-05-17 0.168194 0.475290 1.260913 3.378774 8.885288 22.327478 57.400206
2026-05-24 0.150984 0.441611 1.209303 3.343829 9.062921 23.425783 61.957415
2026-05-31 0.134615 0.407257 1.150379 3.280044 9.156027 24.327006 66.144879
2026-06-07 0.122829 0.383880 1.117183 3.280671 9.420417 25.698402 71.747425
2026-06-14 0.121734 0.392007 1.172546 3.537676 10.425224 29.134902 83.335582
2026-06-21 0.113945 0.378285 1.163539 3.608461 10.917724 31.268864 91.663304